Iran: The Day After

Could someone please give a reason why an attack on Israel would be in Iran’s long-term interest? Because there really doesn’t seem to be one.

The anti-semetic rhetoric, the bellicose posturing, the internal surpression complimented by rape and torture—all of these elements have been essential in Ahmadinejad’s attempt to become a global political player. And people (like Bret Stephens) are worried. “What if they got the bomb?” we hear. Good question. But more importantly, what would Iran do they day after they got the bomb?

The Cold War stayed cold for one core reason: mutual assured destruction. And reason the Middle East will stay cold on a nuclear level is for one core reason: Iran-assured destruction. For all the outlandish words coming from the regime, there is very little evidence showing that they are happy to sacrifice their own existence for that of the destruction of Israel. Because that’s surely what would they would lose in the certain, swift counterattack by Israel itself along with whatever defense the US offered. So where’s the motive?

This situation leaves the regime with even less leverage than we envisioned. Their problems at home add to the West’s advantage. So all in all, it’s not hard to imagine  Ahmadinejad, the day after, quietly suffering from a severe case of “Be careful what you wish for”…